The US Federal Reserve (الفدرالي) is approaching its December meeting with increasing internal division, a situation highlighted by recent statements from Boston Fed President Susan Collins. She indicated she doesn’t see an “urgent need” for another interest rate cut next month, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. This divergence in opinion underscores the complex economic landscape the Fed is navigating, balancing concerns about inflation and slowing economic growth. The central question revolves around the future of interest rate cuts (خفض أسعار الفائدة) and the appropriate pace of monetary policy adjustment.
تزايد الخلافات حول سياسة الفائدة داخل الفدرالي
Collins’ comments, made on the sidelines of an economic conference in Boston, suggest that the two rate cuts of 25 basis points since August have already positioned monetary policy “slightly leaning towards fighting inflation.” She believes this stance remains appropriate given that inflation continues to exceed the Fed’s 2% target. Furthermore, she noted that financial conditions are generally supportive of economic activity, describing them as providing “modest support, not a headwind.” This, in her view, doesn’t necessitate a more accommodative monetary policy.
Despite her cautious tone, Collins clarified that she hasn’t finalized her vote for the December meeting. She didn’t rule out dissenting if she disagrees with the majority, but reiterated a “relatively high bar” for any additional rate reductions in the near term. This highlights the delicate balancing act facing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
بيانات اقتصادية متباينة وتضخم مستمر
The Wall Street Journal points out that Collins’ statements followed the release of a mixed jobs report showing an addition of 119,000 jobs in September, coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Collins characterized the report as “mixed,” emphasizing that it hadn’t fundamentally altered her assessment of the labor market.
On the price front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% over the 12 months ending in September, marking nearly five years of inflation above the official 2% target. This persistent inflation is fueling caution among several policymakers, particularly presidents of regional Federal Reserve banks. The debate centers on whether recent economic data justifies further interest rate cuts or if maintaining the current rate is necessary to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched.
معسكران متنافسان داخل اللجنة الفيدرالية
Currently, the FOMC appears divided into two main camps. One camp, comprised of more hawkish members appointed during the Trump administration, such as Christopher Waller and Stephen Mieran, focuses on the slowing labor market. They argue that continued interest rate cuts are crucial to prevent a gradual increase in unemployment from escalating into a more significant problem.
The other camp, including presidents of regional banks like Jeff Schmid of Kansas City and Alberto Musalem of St. Louis, prioritizes the risk of inflation. They fear that excessive easing could solidify the current high level of prices. This division makes consensus-building a significant challenge for Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Adding to the speculation, New York Fed President John Williams, a close ally of Powell, suggested on Friday that a rate cut “in the near term” could be warranted. This statement prompted market participants to increase their bets on a third rate cut in December. The market’s reaction demonstrates the sensitivity to any signals from the Fed regarding future monetary policy.
توترات داخلية تكشفها محاضر الاجتماعات
Minutes from the October 29th meeting, released this week, revealed that tensions were already present during discussions. The minutes indicated that some members who supported a rate cut at that time were also prepared to accept holding rates steady, suggesting the division regarding the December meeting wasn’t a recent development. This internal debate underscores the complexity of the economic situation and the lack of clear consensus on the best course of action.
Powell faces a difficult task in forging a consensus, whether the committee decides to implement a third consecutive rate cut or maintain the current rate. The likelihood of dissenting votes is increasing in either scenario. The situation is further complicated by the delayed release of official economic data following the recent government shutdown in the US.
ضبابية البيانات وتأثيرها على القرار
Only jobs and inflation figures through September have been released so far, with updated data scheduled to be published after the December meeting. This lack of current information makes it challenging for policymakers to make a well-informed decision. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin likened the situation to attempting to “bring a boat ashore in the dark after the lighthouse has gone out,” highlighting the difficulty of making a precise decision in the absence of timely information.
The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, coupled with the internal divisions within the Fed, creates a complex environment for monetary policy. The future of interest rate cuts remains uncertain, and the December meeting will be closely watched by markets and economists alike. The Fed’s decision will have significant implications for economic growth, inflation, and financial stability.
الخلاصة: موازنة دقيقة بين مخاطر التيسير والإبقاء على التشديد
Between conflicting assessments of the labor market, persistent inflation above target, and fluctuating market expectations for the December 10th meeting, the statements of Collins – as reported by the Wall Street Journal – reflect a reality: the Federal Reserve stands at a sensitive balancing point between the risks of accelerating easing and maintaining a tight policy for too long. The coming weeks will be crucial as policymakers weigh the available data and attempt to navigate this challenging economic landscape. Investors and businesses should closely monitor the Fed’s announcements and be prepared for potential shifts in monetary policy.
